The Prediction Market for Your Friends.
Create the market. Profit from the chaos.
Download for iOS
$1.2M+
Transactions
35k+
Completed
BEN'S DATE ▼ NO (80%)
SARAH'S EXAM ▲ YES (95%)
TYLER'S BENCH ▼ FAIL (10%)
UBER ARRIVAL ▲ LATE (50%)
KYLE'S PARLAY ▼ BUST (99%)
WILL HE TEXT? ▲ YES (60%)
CHIPOTLE RUN ▼ DECLINED (99%)
BEN'S DATE ▼ NO (80%)
SARAH'S EXAM ▲ YES (95%)
TYLER'S BENCH ▼ FAIL (10%)
UBER ARRIVAL ▲ LATE (50%)
KYLE'S PARLAY ▼ BUST (99%)
WILL HE TEXT? ▲ YES (60%)
CHIPOTLE RUN ▼ DECLINED (99%)
How It Works
Turn chaos into profit in 3 steps.
1. Spot the Chaos
Find a moment of uncertainty. A date, a game, or a risky decision.
2. Set the Odds
Create a market. Short your friend's success. Send the link to the group chat.
3. Get Paid
When the result hits, the pot pays out instantly to the winners.
FAQ
Is this gambling?
Pledge is built for small, social bets between people who know each other. It’s about accountability and predictions on real-world outcomes, not casino-style games against the house.
Who holds the money?
When you join a pledge, your share of the pot is collected securely through our payment provider and held until the outcome is settled.
What stops someone from lying?
Pledges are settled with proof (photos/screenshots). Since these are your friends, reputation matters.
For disputes, we have a Manual Review Team that mediates outcomes based on evidence. If a resolution can't be reached, we refund the pot to all participants.
For disputes, we have a Manual Review Team that mediates outcomes based on evidence. If a resolution can't be reached, we refund the pot to all participants.